Taj London: Advantage PlayerSunday, July 19, 2009
Poker Adore
Where am I going?
Over the past couple of months I've been pondering my future in card counting. I think it is mainly due to a series of losing streaks counteracting my initial winning streak taking me slightly below (but still close to) EV.
When I first starting counting I had some phenomenal success due to some nice winning streaks. I was way above EV. A lot of this was due to multi-hand play at high counts and some slight over-betting. (I was using a renewable bankroll - so it's not technically over betting). This was all near the end of 2008.
Since then, there have been some major corrections and I hit some pretty hard losing streaks, which unfortunately coincided with the point when I decided to increase my bet levels. This was especially painful and it hit my bankroll pretty hard, forcing me to drop my betting unit back to its original level. So whilst my EV in terms of units is still on track, my bankroll is a little worse for wear.
Since then, my bankroll has only gone up a little. At a much slower rate than when I started, but not too far off EV. So I'm still making money - but is it worth the time I'm spending?
June was actually a decent month for me, and I increased my bankroll by about $1,500. But looking at my overall bankroll per hour again, I'm making just under $5 per hour (since I started) after all expenses. My bankroll is still way too small to make serious cash from counting cards. My worry is that I'll be caught and banned from all my local joints before I have enough cash to do some serious damage.
This has all lead me to question what I'm doing when it comes to counting cards. I know I am capable of counting cards and I have seen the positive results. But for $5 an hour - is it worth it? For $10 an hour, its a definite yes for me, but $20 would be even better. In other words, I need to double my betting unit, then double it again. At my current rate of play, this will take approximately 18 months. By that time, it is very likely I will have been banned from some if not all my local joints.
So, why not find an alternate source of income to make $10 an hour and build my bankroll that way. Then, when my bankroll is big enough to comfortably support and EV of $20 an hour, I can return to counting cards then. That's my current feeling anyway. Still not decided which way I'm going to go.
Card counting is only a part-time activity for me.
When I first starting counting I had some phenomenal success due to some nice winning streaks. I was way above EV. A lot of this was due to multi-hand play at high counts and some slight over-betting. (I was using a renewable bankroll - so it's not technically over betting). This was all near the end of 2008.
Since then, there have been some major corrections and I hit some pretty hard losing streaks, which unfortunately coincided with the point when I decided to increase my bet levels. This was especially painful and it hit my bankroll pretty hard, forcing me to drop my betting unit back to its original level. So whilst my EV in terms of units is still on track, my bankroll is a little worse for wear.
Since then, my bankroll has only gone up a little. At a much slower rate than when I started, but not too far off EV. So I'm still making money - but is it worth the time I'm spending?
June was actually a decent month for me, and I increased my bankroll by about $1,500. But looking at my overall bankroll per hour again, I'm making just under $5 per hour (since I started) after all expenses. My bankroll is still way too small to make serious cash from counting cards. My worry is that I'll be caught and banned from all my local joints before I have enough cash to do some serious damage.
This has all lead me to question what I'm doing when it comes to counting cards. I know I am capable of counting cards and I have seen the positive results. But for $5 an hour - is it worth it? For $10 an hour, its a definite yes for me, but $20 would be even better. In other words, I need to double my betting unit, then double it again. At my current rate of play, this will take approximately 18 months. By that time, it is very likely I will have been banned from some if not all my local joints.
So, why not find an alternate source of income to make $10 an hour and build my bankroll that way. Then, when my bankroll is big enough to comfortably support and EV of $20 an hour, I can return to counting cards then. That's my current feeling anyway. Still not decided which way I'm going to go.
Card counting is only a part-time activity for me.
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