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Be blogging again soon! Please bear with me!

When I first decided to become a card counter, this is where I started:

Learn how the M.I.T. Blackjack Team made millions in Vegas bringing down the house! Basic Strategy Card Counting Optimal Betting Camouflage and Team Play! Also included: Bonus Audio Track, Basic Strategy Chart, and Optimal Betting Guide!

Andy Bloch is one of the original members of the MIT team and is a featured player in Bringing Down the House. He has reportedly earned between $5 - $10 million from his card counting exploits! Of course, these days he is too well known and spends most of hit time applying his analytical mind to his successful poker career.

If you've been following along with my blog, you will note that I point out some of the shortcomings of this instructional DVD as I discover them during my career. It glazes over important subjects such as the spread, penetration, risk of ruin, expected returns, bankroll fluctuations and the long run. Important knowledge for a seasoned card counters. So while this is an excellent place to start, it is by no means the complete education needed to be a successful card counter.

For a beginner though, I highly recommend this!
It reminds you a lot of Hollywood's '21', but with instructions as to how exactly they do it. They say seeing is believing, but seeing is also understanding and learning. You can visually follow along as Andy explains what Basic Strategy is and how to use the chart. He explains how to count cards, calculate the 'True Count' and turn that to your advantage. You watch as he and his team take on a casino and it climaxes in an exciting win for the team as they disperse before the Pit Boss can catch them. Obviously this is a little over the top, but it makes it interesting.

So if you want to know what all this card counting malarky is all about without all the maths to it, then this is a great place to start. Watch with friends! Maybe you'll be able to start your own team.

For my blog readers, you will notice that I don't adopt the Team Strategy used here for various reasons, both personal and logistical. You may have success with other team strategies that I discuss later on in this blog.

Another week had passed since our first team meeting. The day job kept me busy, but I still found time to practice my card counting skills.

Now, to any serious card counter, learning basic strategy and how to count cards are fundamental building blocks to your career. If you are unable to master either of these basics, then you have no shot at becoming a card counter. So practice, practice practice until perfect.

And that's what I did. From our first team meeting, I realised that learning to count cards was not going to happen overnight. I needed more training. I studied my basic strategy over and over, testing myself constantly. I find the best way to do this is to get a pen and a blank piece of paper and recreate the basic strategy chart, line by line, rationalising to myself why each play makes sense. Do this enough times and it becomes second nature. I find this method better than dealing yourself cards as you will discover that most of the time you are dealt with obvious hands, like a 20 against a 6. It's the rarer hands that are harder to learn, and that you will also see less often during play. Knowing the correct plays of all hands is vital, no matter how rarely they come up. Counting only gives you slim advantages over the house and you can't afford to give up any of that advantage.

I also did some card counting drills. The same drills as last time. Dealing cards in two's and counting down a deck.

Team Meeting Two
Our second team meeting took place in the same public venue. We selected a booth this time for a little more privacy and ran through a few drills just to test where our skills were at. I was happy to see that my ability to count on pressure had dramatically improved and that I was playing basic strategy nearly perfectly. I still stumbled on some plays, mainly involving when to split, but the improvement was obvious. Zola too had made significant advances in his basic strategy, but was still falling behind in his ability to count.

Having determined that our skills were getting there, we discussed various team play strategies that we should utilise. Now, according to the instructional DVD that we were using, one player (the counter) would sit and bet minimum at a table, whilst a second player (the big player) would sit on the sidelines and be signaled into the game when the count was good and bet big.

This however, is where we came across our first problem with Andy Bloch's DVD.
In order to play a winning game, you had to make sure that the winnings of the big player more than make up for the losings of the counter. The counter is playing a game which will lose him 0.5% of his bankroll every hand, where as the Big Player (who plays only true count of +3 or greater), will be winning at least 1% of his bet every hand. But what percentage of hand played have a true count of +3 or greater?

In the instructional DVD, the team had access to hundreds of thousands of dollars, playing with betting units anyhwere from $100 to $800. They conveniently don't let you know what minimum bet that the counter is using is. Is the table minimum $10 or $100?

Obviously with such big bankrolls, they don't have to worry about table minimums. Our bankroll however, was much smaller. Nearer $2 - 3,000. This meant our minimum bet was rougly $3. Below table minimum! If we used Andy Bloch's Team play method, would it still work for us?

It was apparent more research was necessary on the subject. I said I would work out some numbers at home to see what our betting strategy should be.

End of Team Meeting Two

Up until this point of my career, I was following Andy Bloch's instructional DVD, 'Beating Blackjack with Andy Bloch'. The DVD teaches you how to use basic strategy, count cards and implement it into a team strategy like the one used by the MIT Team.

According to the DVD, one player sits and plays the table minimum, keeping track of the count. When the count reaches the point where it is advantageous for the players, the counter will signal over his team mate, known at the Big Player (or Guerilla). The Big Player will then work out the True Count and bet accordingly. When the count is no longer advantageous to the player, the Big Player leaves the table and moves on to the next winning situation. Pretty much like we see in the movie '21'.

How much the Big Player bets is determined by the Team Bankroll.
First you need to work out your betting unit. The betting unit should be 0.1% of your team bankroll. As the bankroll goes up, your betting unit goes up, and vice versa. So if you have a bankroll of $100,000, your betting unit is $100.

Obviously, the higher the true count, the more your advantage, and this is reflected in your bets by using a betting multiplier. If you have a true count of 4, then your betting multiplier should be 3 (true count -1), and the Big Player should be betting $300.

That's team play simplified to the core tactics as explained in the Instructional DVD. Of course, as you read on, on this blog, you will see where this strategy has missed out a vital component that has bankrupted many wanna be card counters. The Spread. More on that later.

The ability to count cards needs one further step to make it useful to a card counter.
So far we know how to work out the running count by using the Hi-Lo method of counting. This tells us if the deck is rich in 10's and A's, or is depleted of them. We need to take this one step further by looking at how many decks are left, and determining the advantage/disadvantage per deck left to be played. This is called the True Count.

True Count = Running Count/No. of Decks Left.

True count gives you the percentage advantage you have over the casino. At a true count of 0, the casino has a 0.5% advantage. For every additional +1, the advantage swings by 0.5% towards the player. So a true count of +5 means the player has a 2% advantage.

True Count vs Running Count
The running count merely tells you how many more (or less) high cards there are than low cards. If the running count is +6, this means there are 6 more high cards than there are low cards left in the deck. Of course, if there are only 6 cards left to play, we can confidently say that there will all be high cards. But if we have six decks left, then that knowledge is greatly dispersed. That is why the True Count is needed. It tells us the proportion of high cards per deck and we can use this to make strategic decisions at the blackjack table.

A true count of +1 or lower means the casino has the advantage. A true count higher than +1 means that we, the players have the advantage. True count is the basis of any card counting strategy. Knowing when you have the advantage and how to use it, is how we make money as card counters.

For those of you who remember, I started out card counting with my buddy Zola. But so far our training was done separately, apart from watching some instructional DVD"s together.

I learned Basic Strategy and the Hi-Lo counting system on my own in a couple of days, but we waited a week for our first team meeting. I had 'tested' the system and was pretty confident that it all worked and made sense. I was ready to start perfecting my skills and get into the casinos.

We met in a public place to start our training; not busy so that we'd get disturbed.
Not surprisngly, however, Zola had made little progress on his side, having spent only the hour before the meeting learning basic strategy. I'd been kind of expecting this, so wasn't too dissappointed, after all we both have full time jobs too.

He went on about wanting to be cautious, and wanting to test the system before we started. He wasn't yet convinced that counting cards worked. I reassured him that we wouldn't do anything until we were convinced that it worked. I told him to go buy some cards and test it for himself at home until he was convinced. I was, there definitely was something to this card counting stuff.

So instead we spent the meeting running through some drills, testing basic strategy, practicing counting cards.

Now, training yourself in the comfort of your home is one thing, but doing it with someone else there is a whole different matter. Basic strategy was all of a sudden not so obvious. I started to question if I was making the right moves, counting cards with someone else counting along as well, but getting different counts, was challenging, and on top of all that, having people walking by and wondering what the hell you were doing made it a little more difficult.

While we may not have achieved much out of team meeting numero uno, we did learn that a lot more serious studying and training was required if we wanted to take this any further.

Until now, I had taken it on blind faith that counting cards works, but there was no way I was going to put into practice without testing it first.

Now, according to card counting strategy, when playing blackjack using basic strategy, the house has an approximate 0.5% edge over the player. This is the average edge over the long term. However, it has been proven that when the deck is heavy in high cards (10's), then the advantage actually swings in favor of the player. The richer the proportion of 10's, the bigger the advantage to the player.

Why is this, you may be asking. Simply because, the higher the proportions of 10's, the more likely you are that your double downs will work, you will get a blackjack and the dealer will bust from hands like a 6. Conversely, the lower the proportion of 10's, and the more small numbers, then the advantage swings even more into the houses favour.

Convinced? Well it makes sense, but why should I believe it! So I set up a rather simple test to determine whether or not what they were saying was the truth.

So, I took my brand new 4 decks of cards and removed 20 low numbers (2,3,4,5 and 6 - removing four of each). This left me with a deck that had a True Count of 5. (Yes I know that you don't know what true count means yet - I'll cover that in a later post). When the true count is +5, that means that the player has a 2% advantage over the house.

So, using my stacked deck, I started to play one on one with the dealer. The results, surprisingly positive! I was making more than I was winning. I sat there for a couple of hours playing well over 200 hands and recording my win loss ratio and I was winning money! (well theoretically anyway). With my minitest under my belt - I found new confidence in the fact that counting cards worked!

Of course, all you experienced card counters and statisticians out there know that a sample of 200 hands proves nothing. To get a true sample you need to play thousands, even millions of hands to get a true proof. You also need to work out the percentage advantage you have. Unfortunately, at this point of my career I'm sad to say that I acted like an idiot blinded by all the easy money I was going to make. I possessed no understanding of the meaning of the term 'long run', all I could see was short term gains.

So Step 1 was over. I know my basic strategy. It was time for Step 2 - learning how to count cards. I have briefly explained the counting system I first learnt in the previous post.

Now, it had only taken me a couple of hours to learn Basic Strategy. Memorising the chart was pretty simple and playing a few dummy hands to test my knowledege was pretty easy too. But counting cards looked a bit more difficult. I got the old DVD out again (Beating BlackJack with Andy Bloch), and ran through the section on how to count cards.

This part of the DVD is great. The instructional bit on how to count cards is priceless. You watch, follow along, and learn how to count cards. +1, -1, +1. +1, +1, -1. The count is 2! Wow, this is easier than I thought (funny how the count on the instructional DVD is always positive). The first couple of times I ran through the DVD, I found it hard to keep up with him. Assigning numbers to other numbers and counting them is a tricky skill to learn, but after a little practice you do start to get the hang of it.

Of course as any counter knows, being able to add and subtract is not enough. You need to be able to do it in pairs, do it at speed and do it accurately! Being off by 1 is not going to hurt you overall, but if you're off the count by anymore than that - you're in trouble!

It was at this point I realised that I didn't have any playing cards to practice with. Doh! So I went out and got some at $3 a pack and started on some easy drills.

Drill 1 - Counting down a deck.
In the movie 21, there's a scene where he counts down a deck on a plane. I finally know what he's doing now!
The Hi-Lo system is a balanced system. This means that there is an even number of positive and negative cards in the deck, so that by the end of the deck you should always end up with zero. And that's what I did. I counted the deck down a few times until I confidently hit zero three times in a row. Man, I'm ready to go play now - I can count, I know basic strategy - I'm ready to win some money!

Drill 2 - Counting in pairs
On the Andy Bloch DVD - he points out that in casinos you get dealt cards in twos, so you should be counting in twos. It makes it less obvious that you're counting and you should be more efficient too.
So I sat there for an hour dealing myself three hands at a time and counting down 4 decks. I always came out at 0, or if I was off, I was only off by 1.

I'm pretty good at this counting stuff, eh? At least I thought I was.
As I was soon to find out, counting in the comfort and privacy of your home at a nice slow speed is not the same as doing it in a noisy, public environment.

Next post, I test to check if counting cards works
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/testing-system.html

Step 2 to becoming a card counter is learning how to count cards.
There is a common misconception that you need to be some sort of genius to be able to count cards. I mean, keeping track of all the cards already being played to figure out what cards are left in the deck? Who can do that?

Well I'm here to tell you that counting cards is easy. Anyone can do it with a little practice.
Back in the movie '21', you may have remembered they used a secret code to tell the new player what the count was. Instead of 16, they would say 'sweet', or instead of 14, they would say 'chair'. The code itself is not important, it is the numbers that are important.

So what have these numbers got to do with counting? Everything. Let's face it you have to be super human to be able to keep track of every single card shoe after shoe. So counters don't keep track of every card, but assign values to each card and keep a running count.

There are in fact many different types of counting methods, Zen, Hi-Lo, Red-Seven, KO, Mentor, Kisses and many more. There's also balanced counts and unbalanced counts. But let's keep it simple for now and stuck to the popular Hi-Lo system. This is the one I started on and the one I'll be using for quite some time. In fact, most counters don't ever move beyond Hi-Lo. It's easy to use and does the job.

What is Hi-Lo
The Hi-Lo system is a balanced count system. It is simple to learn and decently efficient to use. In the Hi-Lo system, you assign the value of 1, 0 or -1 to each card as so:

Face Value Count Value
2,3,4,5,6 1
7,8,9 0
10,J,Q,K,A -1

This means that every time you see a 2, you add 1 to the running count. if you see a 10, you subtract 1. If you see a 7,8 or 9, you ignore the card as if it wasn't there.

And that's the Hi-Lo counting system. You start from a count of 0 at the beginning of the shoe and keep a running count as each card is dealt. Of course there's more to it than that, but this is sufficient to know for now.

Read on in the next post:
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/learning-to-count-cards.html

Let's get started!
So here we were after a only a week in the world of card counting ready to start our training. We'd watched the movie '21' and even seen 'Beating BlackJack with Andy Bloch' a few times, it was time to start our training.

Step 1 was learning Basic Strategy. Now I've played blackjack before and am well aware of the basic rules of the game and have even come up with a few strategies of my own. Man was I in for a shock about how many basic strategy rules I've been breaking!

Let me just start by saying that I consider myself to be a numbers guy. I've always liked and understood numbers and statistics. This is what has kept me away from casinos in the past. I know that casinos are a business based on percentages and all their games are created to give them the edge. They're always going to win in the long run (unless you count or cheat).

So I was more than ready to accept the fact that card counters relied on proven maths to beat the game. Basic Strategy is a mathematically proven optimal strategy for playing the game. It gives you the highest possible EV (expected value). I wasn't going to sit and waste time proving that basic strategy was right, I just did, after all most of the plays made sense.

So the first thing I did was a quick trip to the local casino (let's call this Casino Big for future reference). They played 6 decks, dealer stands on soft 17, early surrender, double any two and double after split. I went over to http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php and got the appropriate basic strategy card.

Now, learning the basic strategy card wasn't difficult. A lot of the plays made a lot of sense such as doubling when you have a 10 against a 9 or less, or splitting twos against 7 or less. It was the optional plays that were a bit more difficult. Plays like 16 against a 10. Surrender if possible, otherwise hit. In my pre card counting blackjack life, when you get a 16 against a 10, you usually stand and hope he busts. Of course, according to basic strategy this is the wrong play. If you're like me, you take the chicken approach to blackjack. Play it safe and hope for the best. However Basic Strategy seemed much more aggressive comparatively. It didn't matter what I thought though. Basic Strategy is right, so I just knuckled down and learnt it. If you can't follow the rules then get out of the game.

I'm happy to say that it took no longer than a couple of hours to master basic strategy. I simply learned each number at a time. (e.g. When you have 7 or 8, you always hit. If you have a 9, you double from 3-6 otherwise hit etc etc).

Step 1 complete already! This is going to be easy!
Next comes Card Counting.

What is Basic Strategy? Please refer to the previous post:
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/intoduction-to-basic-strategy.html
Ready for the nexy post?
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/hi-lo-system-of-counting-cards.html

Step 1 to becoming a card counter is to learn Basic Strategy. In fact, all blackjack players should learn basic strategy whether you're going to count cards or are just a recreational gambler.

What is Basic Strategy?
It tells you the optimal play to make in every situation whilst playing blackjack. For example, if you have a hard 16 against the dealers 10, basic strategy tells you to hit (or surrender if possible). Every scenario has been mathematically worked out to give YOU the player the best result in the long run. Playing basic strategy doesn't mean that you will win every hand. It just give you the best possible expected value.
Playing basic strategy doesn't mean that you are going to beat the casino, the casino still has the edge, but you will save a hell of a lot of money though!

Why Learn Basic Strategy?
Firstly, it's not that hard to learn and most casinos even let you take a strategy card to the table!
Secondly, by playing basic strategy, you reduce the house edge to approximatly 0.5%. This means that for every $1,000 you bet - you will lose, on average, $5. Compare this to the average gambler, who, with normal play, gives the casino a 5% edge. So for the same $1,000 he plays, he will lose $50. Just by learning basic strategy you can cut your loses by 90%!

I recently came across the following official report showing the earning of AC casinos for Nov '08 across all games:
http://www.njccc.gov/casinos/financia/mthrev/docs/2008/200811revenue.pdf
I was shocked to see that their actual earning from blackjack are between 9 - 17% and that's including the losses they're suffering from card counters. This is way more than the generally accepted figure of 5%. If these bad players just learned basic strategy, just imagine how much money they could save!

Hope this is motivation enough for even you recreational gamblers to pick up a basic strategy chart and learn it. If you play basic strategy at low limit tables, your minial losses should be more than made up for by your comps.

Where can I find a basic strategy chart?
Contrary to what most people think, there is more than one basic strategy chart. This is because every blackjack game not only has different rules, but also differing number of decks played. This all makes a difference. So you need to make sure you pick the write basic strategy chart for the game you are playing.

Early on in my career I found this great site that will generate the correct chart depending on the rules you are playing. Check the generator at the link below:
http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

Now that you all know a little bit about basic strategy, we can continue with my card counting journey!

Continue on to the next post:
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/learning-basic-strategy.html

So here I am. It's roughly June 2008 and my friend (ZoLa) and I have watched the movie '21' and decided to give card counting at blackjack a shot. We have some fairly unrealistic expectations and no clue what to do. Counting cards eh?

So where to start? Well, we turned to our good old friend Google and plugged in MIT Blackjack Team and Card Counting, reading dozens of articles about how the MIT Blackjack team had taken Vegas casinos for millions using card counting in teams. Seemed great, but still no clue as to how to count. There were hundreds of sites with tons of information on Basic Strategy and little on how to actually count in teams.

Eventually I got my hands on a copy of "Beating Blackjack with Andy Bloch". Andy Bloch was one of the members of the notorious MIT BlackJack team, and along with Expert Insight had produced an instructional DVD on how to count cards in a team. The DVD had shades of the movie '21', with mock situations of Andy Bloch evading casinos Pit Bosses and rushing loot out of the casino. (Of course, Andy Bloch's DVD was made well before the movie '21' so who copied whom eh?).

ZoLa and I watched the DVD several times. It made the whole thing look exciting and easy. Our favourite bit was where the team wins $80,000 in a single hand right at the end! It was so exciting that we couldn't wait to get started.

The DVD laid out exactly what we needed to do to become card counters.
1. Learn Basic Strategy
2. Learn to Count Cards using the simple Hi-Lo system
3, Assign your team roles and hit the casinos!

We're going to make a lot of money!

Next time: Basic Strategy.
Warning: To anyone reading this blog and thinking about becoming a card counter, please do not follow the instructions laid out in Beating Blackjack with Andy Bloch. It may be entertaining and motivational, but it conveiently glazes over IMPORTANT card counting knowledge such as betting spreads and streaks. If you are interested in becoming a counter there are some much better free resources out there which will give you a more complete picture of counting cards which I will mention in a later blog post.

Continue on to the next post:
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/intoduction-to-basic-strategy.html

So what drove me into the depraved world of card counting?
Counting cards is not something I saw myself doing six months ago. I was vaguely aware of stories of irresponsible parents taking their genius kids into casinos to track cards whilst they gambled and make them money. I also remember hearing stories of people being taken around back and beaten to within an inch of their lives for cheating. What was fact, what was myth? At this point of my life I didn't really care.

As far as I was concerned, casinos were big evil coporations that offered punters pipe dreams in exchange for their hard earned wages. The only way to beat a casino was to cheat or get very, very lucky. Gambling? No thank you, not for me. I don't even buy lottery tickets.
That's not to say I've never gambled. I did in my youth, with no success, but I'll leave that story for another day.

So what changed? What made me turn to counting cards? It will come as little surprise to many of you, but it all happened because of a little movie called '21'. But I'm getting ahead of myself. Please indulge me whilst I backtrack a little.

I started my own retail operation over a year ago. It was during this time that I met ZoLa (not real name). We shared similiar interests and quickly became friends. Our relationship revolved around potential business opportunities and we mainly concentrated on import and distribution. However, with limited resources and high competition, finding the right opportunity was not easy. We wanted low risk opportunities with gauranteed results, and those are things that don't exist in business. Business is all about risk.

The movie '21' came out on the 28 March 2008. It's based on the true story of the MIT blackjack team, but with the usual Hollywood treatment. The film itself wasn't too bad, I'd give it 3.5 out of 5 stars. (I'll do a review of the film later for those interested in learning more about the film). Even after watching the film, my interest in card counting still wasn't peaked. The film revealed very little in terms of how you actually counted cards and made out that you had to be a MIT freak genius to count cards.

It wasn't until a few months later when ZoLa got his hands on a DVD of 21 that he suggested we give it a shot. Hell, why not? Seeing as none of our other side businesses were panning out, it wouldn't hurt to look into it.

Was this going to be the end of the beginning or the beginning of the end? You'll find out soon enough.

Thanks for reading!

Continue on the next post:
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/getting-started-with-andy-bloch.html

Why and What this blog is all about
So I've been reading everywhere that blogging is all the rage! Start a blog, put down the crazy going on's inside your head and people will flock to read your blogs like toddlers to candy.
Four years ago I looked at blogs and thought 'whatever', ain't my cup of tea. Two years ago, I thought 'there might be something to this online blogging and community stuff', so i opened a blog, didn't make a single post and quickly forgot all about it. In the last month I decided, 'hell, I got some time I'm wasting doing nothing but watching telly, let me give it a try and see what happens'.

So here it is, my first online blog (well technically my second - but the first I intend to post on).

So why a blog? Why not a secret journal or a hidden diary?
They say sharing is caring, but that's not the reason I decided to start this blog.
Firstly, I want to have my own blog - regardless of the subject matter. Want to see what all the fuss is about and why so many people are doing it. There seem to be hundreds of sites dedicated just to blogging. The say if you snooze your lose, so I've decided to wake up and jump on to this blogging band wagon and give it a go.
Secondly, there are somethings that I'd like to get out there which I just can't do anywhere else. As I will be keeping my identity anonymous on this blog, I'll be able to freely rant about my experiences as a card counter - something you just can't do to your friends and family, but something I do want to get out there. They say confession is good for the soul, let it be so!

What is this blog going to be about?
And now to the subject of my blog. About six months ago, I started my journey to becoming a card counter. I've been blessed so far in that I'm ahead of the curve, but it's been a rocky experience none the less. I hope that any readers will find this blog educational and entertaining as a twenty-something loser takes on the big casinos in the hope of 'breaking' the bank.

The life of a card counter can be an extremely emotional one. There is a lot more to the art of counting cards than people expect. The promises of riches and glory have left many an unprepared straggler along the wayside, but those who prepare and commit themselves to the goal have been extremely successful. I'm sure that the uneducated reader will find some of the truths about the seedy life of counting cards unexpected and hopefully future card counters out there will see the truth in what to expect if they are foolish enough as I was to start upon this emotional rollercoaster.

Enjoy!

Continue on to the next Post:
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/begin-at-beginning.html