Confessions of a Card Counter

My Story

The movie '21' spawned a whole new generation of card counters of whom I am proud to be one.
However, the path to becoming a card counter was not as easy as I thought.

Click here to read my story

A Blog By:

Advantage PlayerTaj London: Advantage Player
Advantage gambling, or advantage play, refers to a practice of using legal ways to gain a mathematical advantage while gambling ...

Initial Bankroll: $3,000
Earnings to date: $12,355
Bankroll Spending: $6,000
Current Bankroll: $9,355
Last Update: 19th Sept 2010
Current Status: On Hiatus

Irish Poker Open 2013

So it feels like forever since my journey into the secretive world of Card-Counting began.  More than 4 years now!

As you will know if you have read my previous posts, my days of slinking unnoticed into casinos and testing the laws of probability came to an end more than 2 years ago in favour of a more entertaining (and profitable) game ... Poker!

I've been at it for over 3 years now (some time overlap), and it has proved to be quite rewarding.  Not getting rich, but all the spare cash certainly makes life a lot easier. I decided to create a new blog, as I'm taking my first attempt at playing outside my comfort zone and the soft game I've gotten used to, and will be tangling it with the Pro's at the Irish Poker Open 2013 in Dublin this Easter.  Whilst I'm not expecting to do well against what I expect to be a field of experienced and knowledgeable players, I am expecting to have a lot of fun!

As part of my preparation  I have had to temporarily abandon my local cash game so I can concentrate on developing a more tournament based game which i hope will do well in the tournament.  Whether or not this pays off, is yet to be seen.  However, part of my 'training', has involved my getting back into pure odds and taking up a little card-counting on the side to pass them time (and get that winning feeling going!).

It wasn't as easy as I thought, but it's been fun, and I've 'lucked' into another positive swing and picked up $800 (400 units+) in about a week.

Nice distraction, but back to my poker and looking forward to the IPO 2013!

The end of my career!

So there were recently a couple of post over at BlackJack Info on what happened to the blog. A bit of speculation that I in fact couldn't count cards at all and lost my bankroll. Well, just in case anyone is wondering what happened, here is what happened:

It was fun ... for a while
When I first started counting cards, I was still pretty young (mid twenties) had lots of spare time and was looking for ways to make some easy money. As you already know, the movie 21 is what inspired me to learn how to count cards. In the beginning, it was all very exciting. Finding out that card counting was statistically possible, learning how to do it and then taking that first step into a casino and counting that first card - what a rush!

As I have admitted previously, I was fortunate to start my career with a hot streak. My bankroll quickly grew and the winning was awesome. It was an exciting period of my life. Free food, free drinks and what felt like free money! Sure, there were some times when you would lose, and that sucked! But, at the end of the day, I knew that I was winning, and that held me through those darker periods.

But, after more than a year of counting cards, the fun and excitement were gone. It had become a chore. Not to mention I was finally starting to pick up some heat.

So what made me stop counting cards?
Actually, I should probably blame poker. In Nov 2009, I found that many of the casinos I play blackjack at, also ran some live poker games. $1/$2 blinds, no-limit, texas hold-em. I've been playing online poker for years, but am a steady loser online. However, I took to live poker like a fish to water. The games at my local casinos are full of weak players (a couple of strong ones too) - and for this first time, I was the shark! I have a good knack for reading my opponents. I don't see their tells too often, but I notice their patterns of playing. i.e. they bluff more if they are losing, they only have a few chips left, depending on how drunk they are etc, etc.

Poker is also more social, and I not only have more fun, but have made some good friends too (with the better players ... not the fish).

Poker Vs BlackJack
Now, I must admit that it was my BlackJack bankroll that has allowed me to play poker at the level I do, but at the end of the day, the results are shockingly different! After my initial lucky streak at blackjack had run out, I realised that I was only averaging $3 per hour at blackjack. This was due to reasons such as my limited bankroll, slow dealers and tables becoming more and more packed (I started playing more during the busy times to cover my play, so was getting slower action). Now compare that to Poker. I average $150 profit a night from poker (this is over 100 nights of play). Each night can be between 2-5 hours long (although I have had a marathon 30 hour game once!) An average of about $40 an hour! That's a huge difference!

Because of this, poker quickly became my nightly hobby, rather than blackjack!

Business over PlayTime
Now, even though I take my poker and blackjack very seriously, I still consider it to be a hobby rather than a career. I have made the decision that I do not want to spend the rest of my life in the casino. I have met some very unsavoury character and I do not want to end up like them (I'm not talking about the other punters here).

Over the last 2 years, a lot of excellent business opportunities have opened for me. I know that I am not going to make a fortune from poker/blackjack, but as an entrepreneur, I just might!

Never Again?
Now, I'm not saying that I'll never play blackjack again. Of course I will. But I'm not going to go out of my way to do so! It's just not a priority for me any more.

Thanks all those who have read my blog and good luck to all you prospective card counters!

Showing Off

It's been a long week, it's late, I'm tired and it's All Hallow's Eve! (Halloween). So here's a quick story for y'all (sorry, but it's not scary).

In the very early days of my card counting career, I was part of a duo ( well trying to be anyway). We were a little naive and over optimistic at the time on all the fortunes that card-counting was going to bring us, but we weren't stupid. We did our research, studied the art of counting cards and practised.

One of the first things you learn about card counting is that it is based on the fact that the player has an advantage when the deck is heavy in 10's and A's. One of the reasons for this is that it increases the chances of the player getting a blackjack.

When we first hit the tables, we started to notice that there were times when a certain number would clump together. More often than not, it was the tens (makes sense since there are 4x the number of tens than any other card). We weren't the only ones. Other players at the table noticed it too.

"Man, look at all those 10's!" was uttered more than once by ploppies sitting next to me. Even the ploppies know the tens are good.

However, what interested me and my partner was when all the A's came together. We realised that if we could track those A's during the shuffle, then we were going to significantly increase the odds of predicting a blackjack. (I later learned that this is called shuffle tracking).

One time, I was playing alone with my partner watching and counting along for practice (I know - great cover eh? We were young and stupid). I noticed that there was a clump of 5 aces with some 10's as well. They came near the end of the shoe, so I knew where they were pre-shuffle.

Now, the dealers shuffle was weak. He shuffled once through and presented me the deck for cutting. I knew roughly where those aces were, but added a few cards buffer. I winked to my partner and said brashly: "Watch this.".

The first hand I played a normal bet (single unit). A bunch of 10's dropped, but no aces. The next hand I bumped my bet up to 10 units. I could feel the glare of my partner as he was in shock at what I was doing. There was no way that I was supposed to be ramping bets after the first hand. With mostly 10's, the shoe was already going against me. But I could smell thoses Aces. I was confident of my cut, and I knew they were on the way.

Lo and behold, the dealer dealt me 2 blackjacks, and a A7 for himself!

I turned to my partner with a smug smile. He couldn't believe what I had done, and honestly neither could I. It was luck - but I pulled it off!

Yes, it was stupid shuffle tracking without actually practising it first and I got lucky to get 2 blackjacks, but if I make that same play enough to get into the long run, it's a winning play, and that is what card counting is all about.

Have a good Halloween all!

Temporary Leave of Absence

DUDE! Where'd you go!
I must apologise to my few followers who are reading and enjoying my blog. As you might have gathered from my last post, I was getting worried about only making small returns and the risk of getting booted from my favourite joints before I get the chance to play big. However, this was not the reason for my short disappearance from the card counting world.

Recently, I've been getting a lot more responsibility at the day job and so the hours have increased (sadly the pay only went up a little). However, there are many new doors opening for me in the business world. I have the opportunity to set-up a couple of small businesses, with good long term potential and also the hourly returns are better than what I'm making from the card-counting. Opportunities like this don't come round every day - so my priorities are with my new ventures.

If you spend much time at card-counting forums like I do, then you will know that having a solid financial base is a great platform for a card counter. You will nearly always make more money from day jobs than you would at counting cards. Card-counting is more of a hobby and a way to earn some extra income from your spare time. Old-timers are always advising new comers to sort their careers first before becoming card-counters (advice that sadly falls on deaf ears).

I've decided to follow that route for now and put my card-counting on hold. I will still be sneaking off every once in a while to keep my skill fresh, but at very low limits and for short periods. Card-counting has become like a hobby. A nice way to unwind and spend an evening out. So the making money bit is not the priority.

If all goes well with my business venture and I can build a nice bankroll - expect me to make a big comeback in a few years.

What does this mean for the blog?
I will still be scouring the forums and making some posts here to keep you all entertained. I still have a bunch of stories to tell from my past experiences (I post out of time sequence with live events to prevent casinos getting a clue on my identity). There is also plenty of advice still to be dished out - so keep tuning in and thanks for following the blog!

Want to PM me? Find my profile here:
BJInfo Forum Profile

I always welcome questions from newbies and stories from the rest of ya!

Where am I going?

Over the past couple of months I've been pondering my future in card counting. I think it is mainly due to a series of losing streaks counteracting my initial winning streak taking me slightly below (but still close to) EV.

When I first starting counting I had some phenomenal success due to some nice winning streaks. I was way above EV. A lot of this was due to multi-hand play at high counts and some slight over-betting. (I was using a renewable bankroll - so it's not technically over betting). This was all near the end of 2008.

Since then, there have been some major corrections and I hit some pretty hard losing streaks, which unfortunately coincided with the point when I decided to increase my bet levels. This was especially painful and it hit my bankroll pretty hard, forcing me to drop my betting unit back to its original level. So whilst my EV in terms of units is still on track, my bankroll is a little worse for wear.

Since then, my bankroll has only gone up a little. At a much slower rate than when I started, but not too far off EV. So I'm still making money - but is it worth the time I'm spending?

June was actually a decent month for me, and I increased my bankroll by about $1,500. But looking at my overall bankroll per hour again, I'm making just under $5 per hour (since I started) after all expenses. My bankroll is still way too small to make serious cash from counting cards. My worry is that I'll be caught and banned from all my local joints before I have enough cash to do some serious damage.

This has all lead me to question what I'm doing when it comes to counting cards. I know I am capable of counting cards and I have seen the positive results. But for $5 an hour - is it worth it? For $10 an hour, its a definite yes for me, but $20 would be even better. In other words, I need to double my betting unit, then double it again. At my current rate of play, this will take approximately 18 months. By that time, it is very likely I will have been banned from some if not all my local joints.

So, why not find an alternate source of income to make $10 an hour and build my bankroll that way. Then, when my bankroll is big enough to comfortably support and EV of $20 an hour, I can return to counting cards then. That's my current feeling anyway. Still not decided which way I'm going to go.

Card counting is only a part-time activity for me.

Excuse me sir, are you counting cards?

Casinos don't like it when you win. Sure they pretend they do, it's part of the act of creating an enjoyable, amiable atmosphere whilst emptying your pockets at the same time. Running a casino is a business, and they expect you, the punter, to pay.

Most of the location I play at I'm up overall. Glad to say I've attracted no heat from pit bosses as yet. However, I have been asked more than once by the dealers if I was a card counter. A card counters biggest fear is being caught and barred. In some places you will get barred from a whole chain of casinos or worse, be put on a counter list that is distributed to casinos. For me though, since I play at a series of independent casinos - this is not so much a worry.

So here I am again, hitting a small winning streak, and the amazed dealer can only think of one thing - he must be card counter. Yet the pit boss is no where around to be seen. So there is no actual heat. It's just the dealer trying to figure out how I'm winning.

Let's put it in context. Dealers are only at the tables for short stints at a time. They are not allowed to see my whole game. So it often happens that you hit a number of winning streaks with one particular dealer, whilst your losing streaks are spread amongst the other dealers. So the dealer is only seeing you win.

Another factor is that most blackjack players don't even know basic strategy. They are pure gamblers who make stupid, instinct plays not backed up by statistics. These players always lose, and they lose quickly (much more than the expected 0.5-1%). So dealers here have little experience with players who follow basic strategy, and thus last longer on the tables. If more players followed basic strategy, counters would stick out a lot less.

So when a dealer asks me if I count cards - it's not cause I'm getting heat, it's just a perplexed dealer who isn't used to seeing players win. Even if I wasn't counting, but just following basic strategy and hitting some winning streaks, they'd still think I was counting cards.

So I just lean back and deliver off one of my pre-formulated answers "Sure I'm counting. 1, 2, 3 upto 21. Anything over and I bust right?". This shuts them up pretty quickly.

Now, if a pit boss asks me if I'm counting - that's a different scenario.

Attack of the ploppies

So today was yet another day of counting cards where I got to play with some idiot ploppies. I feel the need to rant about it, so bear with me!

A ploppy is an everyday blackjack gambler who 'plops' themselves on a stool around the table in the 'hope' of winning. They do not count cards and normally have no idea about basic strategy.

Now don't get me wrong when you read this. I don't hate ploppies, after all they keep casinos in business. It's just painful to watch them make not only incorrect, but plainly stupid plays and it's more than annoying when their bad play ruins my hands (even though I know that in the end it will average out and should ignore it). I'm so used to having the tables all to myself most of the time (no I don't get heat), that I've gotten used to playing really fast. The more hands I can fit in, the more my average hourly earnings. This is one of my secrets to growing my bankroll faster than is expected.


So here I was, just starting a third shoe. Finally the true count goes high enough for me to start ramping the bets and it's still early in the shoe. All of a sudden, a ploppy arrives at the table (no, he wasn't back counting), slightly drunk and fumbles for some cash. Last thing I want to do is share my high count with some know nothing ploppy.

He takes first base and the dealer deals him in. He gets an A, I get a 6, and the dealer a 10! I can't help but feel gutted that this ploppy stole my blackjack just when I ramped my bet. I also ended up losing the hand. The arrival of the ploppy, funnily enough, leads to a winning streak for him, and a losing streak for me with a nice high true count, so my bankroll was diminishing quickly.

Now, as a card counter, I know that I should ignore ALL ploppy plays. In the long run, it is going to have no effect on my earnings. Just chalk it up to variance and forget about it. But in the here and now, it's hard to ignore.

The ploppy started to build a nice stack of $5 chips and increased his bets, thinking his luck was in. A small 5 hand losing streak wiped him out, and he was gone! Thank god. Bye Bye ploppy.

But the night wasn't over yet. I was quickly joined by 4 young gents on a night on the town. I had sat myself in third base by this time, so was last in the action. The last of the young gents fancied himself a bit of a know it all. He would hit a 14 against a 4, stick on 15 against a 9, etc etc. All wrong plays according to Basic Strategy dummy! But what really made me laugh is when he turned to his friend and said "See all those 10's? That means we won't win the next hand". Little did he realise the true count was upto +3 by this stage.

The arrival of the new ploppies started another losing streak as their bad plays turned winning hands into losing ones for me. (Yes, yes! I know, ignore it - it's part of variance - it will all be good in the end).

But wait there's more! Next came the drunk player. You know what I'm talking about. So inebriated, he barely knows what he's doing. This was the last straw, after playing 2 hands where I had to wait 5 mins each time for him to make a decision, I just had to get up and leave. After all, time is money.

I ended the night up 2.5 units. So at least something came out of it.

Am I becoming immune to fear?

I was back at my local haunt tonight playing heads up against the dealer. It was one of those up and down struggles with some huge swings and some high true counts. At one point during the evening I was down about 80 units ($400), but was feeling calm and relaxed. I was confident in feeling that it was just one of those swings that I've become so accustomed to.

But it did make me think back to the very first time I lost money playing blackjack. It was nearly a year ago, I was still a newbie and hadn't fully mastered counting cards yet. I just went to the casino with my limited skills to see what it felt like. I only had a $100 lining my pocket and needless to say it quickly disappeared. At the time I felt devastated. $100 may be small change to many people, but not to me at the time. The thought that I'd thrown the money away for nothing chilled me to the very bones.

Yet here I am a year on. $400 down and not even a wrinkle of doubt crosses my forehead. The dealers notice my bored expression. They must be thinking "lucky bastard to be throwing money like that without a care in the world, I'm glad it's me cleaning him out!".

You see. I have experience on my side now. I know that this is part of the dance that we call counting cards. Sometimes you'll win, sometimes you'll lose. I've got to the point now that I'm relying entirely on my winnings to support my blackjack bankroll. I know that in the end I'm going to come out ahead, numbers are on my side.

Have I become immune to the fear? Definitely not. I still get nervous every time the dealer turns over their next card. Is it going to bust them, or are they going to get another unlikely 21. I've seen some crazy streaks in my time. Another losing streak like the one I suffered in February could wipe my bankroll out entirely. My bankroll is not that big that it can support itself indefinitely (cause I had to spend a large portion on some unforeseen expenses). But I do not rely on card counting to support myself. I have a day job as well as other investments and business interests. Blackjack is a part time job/hobby for me.

So what is it that I really fear? That I am becoming the degenerate gambler that I pretend to be so many nights. Counting cards requires a great deal of will power and self restraint. Something that comes easier to some than other. As long as I can keep blackjack only a small part of my life I think I'll be fine though.

Anyway, this weekend has ended up being extremely profitable for me. I ended up with an amazing winning streak on a high count (winning over 10 hands in a row, double handed with doubles, splits, blackjacks the works!). Considering I'm back at the lower limits, my takings for this weekend were a smidge over $1,500. Why didn't I get this streak when I had jumped up to the high level? That's life eh?

Back to work tomorrow. Will be another couple of weeks before I can hit the tables again.

Where have you been?

Got a few mails asking me where I disappeared to. I stopped my card counting activities for a few months due to a death in the family and some heavy negative variances on the tables.

I also decided to relaunch my poker website, http://www.pokeradore.com/. I had forgotten how much I enjoyed doing a little web design every now and then.

So all in all I have kept away from the blackjack tables for a while. But I ventured out again to some local haunts tonight for a little card counting fun.

Unlike my first trips, I was feeling very relaxed and uninhibited. My skills are a little rusty, but I'm back to playing table minimum these days so I can't do too much damage. The stress is a lot less when you play low limits compared to the high limits I had reached a few months ago.

Glad to report that I made a quick 38 unit profit (about spot on for my EV) before retiring once again to my normal life.

Aim to post a little more regularly now for those of you who have started to follow this blog now. Don't worry, am very much alive, kicking and counting!

Encounters with other Counters

Catchy title eh?

Since the day I started counting, I have come across three other counters. 3 times more than I expected and in such a short period of time too! I know there are lots of counters out there, but honestly, I never expected to come across any in my back water town. But I did.

Encounter 1 - And I would have gotten away with it too if wasn't for those rotten kids!
My first encounter was within weeks of starting my counting career. I was playing at one of my favourite properties, playing very low limits and barely spreading at all (I was still a novice at this time). I noticed a couple of kids hanging around too.
They were barely 18, or probably younger. Wasting their time before they took off to Uni. One was playing some poker game against the house, the other joined me at the table when I sat down and opened a new table. I thought little of it at the time, but soon realised the little rat was wonging on me! Whenever I raised my bets in accordance with the TC, he would open a new box. I wouldn't have minded so much, but the little shit was hitting easy doubles and blackjacks, while I was losing. Then when the count dropped, he would wong out and wait.
Well, too bad for me. He was wonging like you're supposed too, leaving me to see every hand, but when he signaled his friend over to join him ... that was too much for me.
I started to wong too, quicker then them. As soon as the count dropped to TC 0, I quickly removed my chips and left them to tough out the -EV hands. Unfortunately for them, their bankroll was too small to support a spread of any kind and they quickly lost all their money. Tough luck kids, but I don't want your sloppy play getting me noticed. It's way too obvious when we raise our bets together.

Encounter 1 - The Doctor
The following month, I was playing at another property (the one I got burned out of in my last post). I was doing okay, and up about 40 units. A young, professional looking gentleman come up to the table and introduced himself as Dr. Raj, visiting from another city. Would I mind if joined me. No problem.
Within the first few hands the TC rose to +2 and we both spread from 1 to 4 on multiple hands. I made some weak comment about 'if the Dr has a feeling, I'm going with him' to take the attention off me. We won all the hands. He said - 'Did you see all those fives? That meant it was a good time to bet big!'. What the hell? Was this guy a counter or just some guy who knew small cards bad, big cards good. The count fell, we reduced our bets and then he wonged out until the next shoe.
Yep, he was a counter. Beyond his fake identity, he was using no cover, and with the two of us at the table I was taking no chances at being made at one of my favourite properties. So I left and let him get on with it.

Encounter 3 - The Old Lady
Early Feb 2009, and I visited my low limits property in town. To my surprise, I found an old lady already playing blackjack (instead of pontoon which is what they usually play). She was terrible, but playing the bottom table limit, so not losing a fortune. I watched her hit a 14 against a 16 and complain when she bust, split tens and all other basic strategy no-no's.
I joined in on the next shoe and began the counters waltz. Waiting for high counts to throw down some big bets. The count rose, my bets did, and so did hers! Not only that, she was no longer making Basic Strategy mistakes. What was going on here?
The count soared to TC +5, we both had some big bets down and proceeded to lose solid hands against an unlucky dealer 6 turning into a 21.
'That shouldn't have happened you know' - she commented to me.
We continued to play, whilst she dropped subtle hints that we were using the same system. Her play wasn't as sharp as mine. She was making a few small basic strategy mistakes and did not have a clue how to use indices. On top of that, she was barely spreading. Using a measly 1:2 spread at TC+2 and a 1:5 spread at high TCs. Not a winning game. However, she was varying from 1 hand to multiple hands, and this was making up for her weak spread. Barely.
Also, she didn't realise I was doing a little shuffle tracking on the side.
Very soon we were backing eachothers hands as a way to get money on the table. I was pretending to follow her psychic powers to avert attention from myself, and betting big when ever I saw her place some chips behind my hand.
As other players joined the table, it turned she was fairly well known at this property, and that she apparently never lost.
I ended the night when I was up 140 units, having had a lot of fun and made a new blackjack buddy.

Lessons Learned
1. There are other counters out there, and they're all better wongers than me.
2. As I've read in other places, never play with other counters - you are going to bring down heat. Best to call it a night. (With the exception of last story where I was able to turn it around and take advantage of it, pretending to be a ploppy who had found a good luck charm).
3. Never, NEVER discuss counting in the casino. The old lady from encounter 3 was very excited to meet another counter and was dying to swap notes with me, but I shut her down quickly at every turn until she got the hint. Best not to let the casino know you've got a system that's beating them.
4. It is easy to spot a counter. If I can do it so quickly, why can't pit bosses?
This means that either casinos have no clue how to spot a counter since they don't count themselves, or like me, they saw that some players might be able to count, but were unable to implement it sufficiently to beat the casino.
The old lady in encounter 3 played a break even game at best. Not something the casinos would bother too much about as she kept the table open for other players to join in.
The kids in encounter 1 were still profitable customers as they were unable to spread at all, and would lose money at other table games.

The Polite Back-Off

One of the problems with being one of only a few players playing blackjack in my area is that casinos quickly start to notice that the tables are not making them as much money as they were expecting. When the tables actually start to lose them money, they really start to pay attention and there's only one person to look at, me!

One of the first casinos that I chose to display my skills at offers a single blackjack table, $5-$50 limits, 4 deck and a 75% penetration. A good place to develop my blackjack advantage player skills as the limits were in my range, I could play heads-up and I didn't mind getting backed off from there if I was caught.

In my first month of play, my bankroll went up and down, but stayed pretty much at the same level. I was still developing my skills and was yet to turn them profitable. But with some free comps it was time well spent.
By my third month playing, things were a lot more serious and I was starting to show some decent profit. Over $5,000 in a single month (although I was actually down at other casinos during this same period so net profit was still within an expected range).

I was actually surprised at how little heat I was getting. The Pit Bosses were pretty much dozing off at my play even though I was spreading like a madman. I guess they knew little about card counting, only that the house always wins in the end.

But, one evening when I turned up for play as usual, I was confronted with 6 decks of cards instead of the usual 4. What's worse, only 50% penetration. That's 3 out of 6 decks cut off every shoe. Unacceptable for any card counter. With half the shoe gone every time, high true counts necessary to beat the game become very rare indeed. Even shuffle tracking or any other skills become less effective with half a blind shoe every shuffle.

In effect, they had secured their game against all card counters. Their game is now unbeatable (at least to a regular card counter like me).

But why change their rules? Why not just bar me if they suspected me of counting?

Maybe it had merely been a corporate decision to change the rules and nothing to do with me (although I doubt that), or maybe my camoflauge had partially worked. There was no way a dumb gambler like me could beat their game. By slyly changing factors out of my control, maybe they thought I wouldn't realise that my strategy was no longer effective against their game and continue to play, except for this time, they would have the advantage.

I think not. I've done my research and I know that a 50% penetration is not a beatable game for a regular card counter like myself. So I took notice of the polite invitation to take my game elsewhere and left.

My Story: How I became a Card Counter

The movie '21' spawned a whole new generation of card counters. I was one of them.

Before watching '21', I was barely aware that blackjack was a beatable game.
Sure I'd heard of people with the 'magical' abilities to track cards and who were able to use their skills in casinos to beat card games and make money, but I'd also heard that this was considered cheating and people caught counting were backroomed and taught a brutal lesson. I knew nothing of the MIT blackjack team, or the book by Ben Mezerich, 'Bringing Down The House', that the movie was based on.

Now, I'd played blackjack years ago, when I was a kid. I like cards and numbers. Blackjack always seemed like a beatable game to me. But I quickly learned it wasn't. Luckily for me I only lost a couple of hundred to learn this lesson before I gave up. Casinos are businesses. They are there to make money for their shareholders, not to give it away. The games are tilted in their favour. You can't make money from blackjack, or so I thought.

21 The Movie
21 is based on Ben Mezerich's book 'Bringing Down The House', which is based on the true life story of the MIT Blackjack Team. The movie came out early 2008, and I myself saw the movie in May 2008. It potrays the life of a MIT student, recruited into the MIT BlackJack Team. The team use a combination of card counting and a division of labour (team play) to take Vegas for Millions! The movie, whilst pretty far from the reality of the actual life experiences of the MIT Blackjack team, was entertaining.

I watched, enjoyed and quickly forgot about the movie. After all, I was no MIT calibre genius. I did not know how to count, had no clue what all this basic strategy stuff was about and where was I going to find a team of geniuses to join up with?

It was a month later that a friend of mine, Zola (not real name), approached me with the idea of giving it a shot. Zola was a business associate and friend. We had been looking at starting a new business venture together for some time, but nothing appropriate had come up so far. We had looked into importing, opening a bureau, manufacturing and several other businesses, but our problem was that we wanted guaranteed success, something that just doesn't happen in business.

Zola thought that here was something that two fairly intelligent guys could sink their teeth into. The movie made it all seem so easy to make money. It would be a great part time hobby, and a way to raise capital for our other ventures.

Researching Card Counting
Now, when I first started looking into card counting, I was not convinced that it was possible. I knew 21 was based on a true story, and that there was some truth behind the story, but how far distorted was the story and more importantly, could someone like me learn to count cards? The movie '21' portrayed the fact that it took a mathematical genius to have any success at card counting. I'm pretty sure that I'm no genius.

Zola and I decided from the beginning that we would not put any money on the line unless we were fully confident it was something that we could do. We would need to test it fully. But first we had to find out how to count cards.

So I plugged 'blackjack', 'card counting', 'MIT' and 'team play' into my good friend google. After all, at this point all I knew about card counting was that it required team play. After a little searching, I came across a DVD called 'Beating BlackJack with Andy Bloch' The name Andy Bloch rang a bell as one of the members of the MIT Team and it seemed the perfect place to start. Who better to learn card counting from, then one of the original members of the MIT Team tnat the movie '21' was based on.

Step 1 - Learn Basic Strategy
Now, whilst I waited for the Beating BlackJack with Andy Bloch DVD to arrive, I scoured some of the multitude of free online resources to learn more about card counting. There are tons of posts all over the interenet about card counting, but very few resources telling you how to do it. Further more, there are even fewer that explain team play, and since that was what I associated card counting with, I tended to ignore the majority of these 'unhelpful' posts.

However, one common theme that came across was something called 'Basic Strategy'.

'Basic Strategy' is a set of mathematically proven playing recommendations on how to play BlackJack to achieve a maximum EV. It tells you when to hit, stand, double, split and surrender. From my poker days, I was well aware of how these kinds of charts worked. You see what cards you have, what the dealer has and the chart tells you what to play.

Basic Strategy is the logical place to start. You need to know how to play the game if you want to beat it.

I came across this neat website with a basic strategy engine. You tell it what kind of game you are playing and it gives you the appropriate chart for that game (i.e. how many decks, local rules etc). Of course, at this point, I was oblivious to all the different variations of blackjack and simply downloaded the first chart I saw.

The chart looked pretty straight forward and most of the plays seemed obvious. Doubling 10 against a dealers 9 or less was a gimme, and hitting 16 or less against a dealers 10 was a no-brainer. This basic strategy stuff was going to be easy-peasy.

Learning to count with Andy Bloch
Within a few days I had my hands on the Beating BlackJack DVD.

I called my buddy Zola around and we watched it. Then we watched it again.
The DVD had shades of the movie '21', with mock situations of Andy Bloch evading casinos Pit Bosses and rushing loot out of the casino. (Of course, Andy Bloch's DVD was made well before the movie '21' so who copied whom eh?).

ZoLa and I watched the DVD several times. It made the whole thing look exciting and easy. Our favourite bit was where the team wins $80,000 in a single hand right at the end! It was so exciting that we couldn't wait to get started.

The DVD laid out exactly what we needed to do to become card counters.
1. Learn Basic Strategy
2. Learn to Count Cards using the simple Hi-Lo system
3, Assign your team roles and hit the casinos!

With basic strategy already under my belt, it was time to learn how to count cards.

Step 2 - Learn how to count cards
Using the DVD to learn to count cards saved a bunch of time. Andy Bloch uses the Hi-Lo system of counting cards, and it was easy to pick up counting as you watched, learned and counted along. At first it was quite difficult to keep up with the count. Seeing a 3 and thinking -1, or a J and thinking +1 is not something that comes naturally. It requires a little bit of practise and conditioning of the mind, but once you start to get the hang of it, it's not too difficult. All you're doing is adding or taking away away 1 from a running count.

I spent a week practicing how to count cards. Running through decks, counting in pairs, dealing to myself whilst I played and counted. By the end of the week I could count down a deck in less than 25 seconds, and I was never off by more than 1, most of the time counting down to a perfect zero.


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Beating BlackJack with Andy Bloch

When I first decided to become a card counter, this is where I started:

Learn how the M.I.T. Blackjack Team made millions in Vegas bringing down the house!
  • Basic Strategy
  • Card Counting
  • Optimal Betting
  • Camouflage
  • and Team Play!

    Also included: Bonus Audio Track, Basic Strategy Chart, and Optimal Betting Guide!
Andy Bloch is one of the original members of the MIT team and is a featured player in Bringing Down the House. He has reportedly earned between $5 - $10 million from his card counting exploits! Of course, these days he is too well known and spends most of hit time applying his analytical mind to his successful poker career.

If you've been following along with my blog, you will note that I point out some of the shortcomings of this instructional DVD as I discover them during my career. It glazes over important subjects such as the spread, penetration, risk of ruin, expected returns, bankroll fluctuations and the long run. Important knowledge for a seasoned card counters. So while this is an excellent place to start, it is by no means the complete education needed to be a successful card counter.

For a beginner though, I highly recommend this!
It reminds you a lot of Hollywood's '21', but with instructions as to how exactly they do it. They say seeing is believing, but seeing is also understanding and learning. You can visually follow along as Andy explains what Basic Strategy is and how to use the chart. He explains how to count cards, calculate the 'True Count' and turn that to your advantage. You watch as he and his team take on a casino and it climaxes in an exciting win for the team as they disperse before the Pit Boss can catch them. Obviously this is a little over the top, but it makes it interesting.

So if you want to know what all this card counting malarky is all about without all the maths to it, then this is a great place to start. Watch with friends! Maybe you'll be able to start your own team.

For my blog readers, you will notice that I don't adopt the Team Strategy used here for various reasons, both personal and logistical. You may have success with other team strategies that I discuss later on in this blog.

Team Meeting Two

Another week had passed since our first team meeting. The day job kept me busy, but I still found time to practice my card counting skills.

Now, to any serious card counter, learning basic strategy and how to count cards are fundamental building blocks to your career. If you are unable to master either of these basics, then you have no shot at becoming a card counter. So practice, practice practice until perfect.

And that's what I did. From our first team meeting, I realised that learning to count cards was not going to happen overnight. I needed more training. I studied my basic strategy over and over, testing myself constantly. I find the best way to do this is to get a pen and a blank piece of paper and recreate the basic strategy chart, line by line, rationalising to myself why each play makes sense. Do this enough times and it becomes second nature. I find this method better than dealing yourself cards as you will discover that most of the time you are dealt with obvious hands, like a 20 against a 6. It's the rarer hands that are harder to learn, and that you will also see less often during play. Knowing the correct plays of all hands is vital, no matter how rarely they come up. Counting only gives you slim advantages over the house and you can't afford to give up any of that advantage.

I also did some card counting drills. The same drills as last time. Dealing cards in two's and counting down a deck.

Team Meeting Two
Our second team meeting took place in the same public venue. We selected a booth this time for a little more privacy and ran through a few drills just to test where our skills were at. I was happy to see that my ability to count on pressure had dramatically improved and that I was playing basic strategy nearly perfectly. I still stumbled on some plays, mainly involving when to split, but the improvement was obvious. Zola too had made significant advances in his basic strategy, but was still falling behind in his ability to count.

Having determined that our skills were getting there, we discussed various team play strategies that we should utilise. Now, according to the instructional DVD that we were using, one player (the counter) would sit and bet minimum at a table, whilst a second player (the big player) would sit on the sidelines and be signaled into the game when the count was good and bet big.

This however, is where we came across our first problem with Andy Bloch's DVD.
In order to play a winning game, you had to make sure that the winnings of the big player more than make up for the losings of the counter. The counter is playing a game which will lose him 0.5% of his bankroll every hand, where as the Big Player (who plays only true count of +3 or greater), will be winning at least 1% of his bet every hand. But what percentage of hand played have a true count of +3 or greater?

In the instructional DVD, the team had access to hundreds of thousands of dollars, playing with betting units anyhwere from $100 to $800. They conveniently don't let you know what minimum bet that the counter is using is. Is the table minimum $10 or $100?

Obviously with such big bankrolls, they don't have to worry about table minimums. Our bankroll however, was much smaller. Nearer $2 - 3,000. This meant our minimum bet was rougly $3. Below table minimum! If we used Andy Bloch's Team play method, would it still work for us?

It was apparent more research was necessary on the subject. I said I would work out some numbers at home to see what our betting strategy should be.

End of Team Meeting Two

Team Play Tactics

Up until this point of my career, I was following Andy Bloch's instructional DVD, 'Beating Blackjack with Andy Bloch'. The DVD teaches you how to use basic strategy, count cards and implement it into a team strategy like the one used by the MIT Team.

According to the DVD, one player sits and plays the table minimum, keeping track of the count. When the count reaches the point where it is advantageous for the players, the counter will signal over his team mate, known at the Big Player (or Guerilla). The Big Player will then work out the True Count and bet accordingly. When the count is no longer advantageous to the player, the Big Player leaves the table and moves on to the next winning situation. Pretty much like we see in the movie '21'.

How much the Big Player bets is determined by the Team Bankroll.
First you need to work out your betting unit. The betting unit should be 0.1% of your team bankroll. As the bankroll goes up, your betting unit goes up, and vice versa. So if you have a bankroll of $100,000, your betting unit is $100.

Obviously, the higher the true count, the more your advantage, and this is reflected in your bets by using a betting multiplier. If you have a true count of 4, then your betting multiplier should be 3 (true count -1), and the Big Player should be betting $300.

That's team play simplified to the core tactics as explained in the Instructional DVD. Of course, as you read on, on this blog, you will see where this strategy has missed out a vital component that has bankrupted many wanna be card counters. The Spread. More on that later.

True Count Vs Running Count

The ability to count cards needs one further step to make it useful to a card counter.
So far we know how to work out the running count by using the Hi-Lo method of counting. This tells us if the deck is rich in 10's and A's, or is depleted of them. We need to take this one step further by looking at how many decks are left, and determining the advantage/disadvantage per deck left to be played. This is called the True Count.

True Count = Running Count/No. of Decks Left.

True count gives you the percentage advantage you have over the casino. At a true count of 0, the casino has a 0.5% advantage. For every additional +1, the advantage swings by 0.5% towards the player. So a true count of +5 means the player has a 2% advantage.

True Count vs Running Count
The running count merely tells you how many more (or less) high cards there are than low cards. If the running count is +6, this means there are 6 more high cards than there are low cards left in the deck. Of course, if there are only 6 cards left to play, we can confidently say that there will all be high cards. But if we have six decks left, then that knowledge is greatly dispersed. That is why the True Count is needed. It tells us the proportion of high cards per deck and we can use this to make strategic decisions at the blackjack table.

A true count of +1 or lower means the casino has the advantage. A true count higher than +1 means that we, the players have the advantage. True count is the basis of any card counting strategy. Knowing when you have the advantage and how to use it, is how we make money as card counters.

Team Meeting Numero Uno

For those of you who remember, I started out card counting with my buddy Zola. But so far our training was done separately, apart from watching some instructional DVD"s together.

I learned Basic Strategy and the Hi-Lo counting system on my own in a couple of days, but we waited a week for our first team meeting. I had 'tested' the system and was pretty confident that it all worked and made sense. I was ready to start perfecting my skills and get into the casinos.

We met in a public place to start our training; not busy so that we'd get disturbed.
Not surprisngly, however, Zola had made little progress on his side, having spent only the hour before the meeting learning basic strategy. I'd been kind of expecting this, so wasn't too dissappointed, after all we both have full time jobs too.

He went on about wanting to be cautious, and wanting to test the system before we started. He wasn't yet convinced that counting cards worked. I reassured him that we wouldn't do anything until we were convinced that it worked. I told him to go buy some cards and test it for himself at home until he was convinced. I was, there definitely was something to this card counting stuff.

So instead we spent the meeting running through some drills, testing basic strategy, practicing counting cards.

Now, training yourself in the comfort of your home is one thing, but doing it with someone else there is a whole different matter. Basic strategy was all of a sudden not so obvious. I started to question if I was making the right moves, counting cards with someone else counting along as well, but getting different counts, was challenging, and on top of all that, having people walking by and wondering what the hell you were doing made it a little more difficult.

While we may not have achieved much out of team meeting numero uno, we did learn that a lot more serious studying and training was required if we wanted to take this any further.

Testing the system

Until now, I had taken it on blind faith that counting cards works, but there was no way I was going to put into practice without testing it first.

Now, according to card counting strategy, when playing blackjack using basic strategy, the house has an approximate 0.5% edge over the player. This is the average edge over the long term. However, it has been proven that when the deck is heavy in high cards (10's), then the advantage actually swings in favor of the player. The richer the proportion of 10's, the bigger the advantage to the player.

Why is this, you may be asking. Simply because, the higher the proportions of 10's, the more likely you are that your double downs will work, you will get a blackjack and the dealer will bust from hands like a 6. Conversely, the lower the proportion of 10's, and the more small numbers, then the advantage swings even more into the houses favour.

Convinced? Well it makes sense, but why should I believe it! So I set up a rather simple test to determine whether or not what they were saying was the truth.

So, I took my brand new 4 decks of cards and removed 20 low numbers (2,3,4,5 and 6 - removing four of each). This left me with a deck that had a True Count of 5. (Yes I know that you don't know what true count means yet - I'll cover that in a later post). When the true count is +5, that means that the player has a 2% advantage over the house.

So, using my stacked deck, I started to play one on one with the dealer. The results, surprisingly positive! I was making more than I was winning. I sat there for a couple of hours playing well over 200 hands and recording my win loss ratio and I was winning money! (well theoretically anyway). With my minitest under my belt - I found new confidence in the fact that counting cards worked!

Of course, all you experienced card counters and statisticians out there know that a sample of 200 hands proves nothing. To get a true sample you need to play thousands, even millions of hands to get a true proof. You also need to work out the percentage advantage you have. Unfortunately, at this point of my career I'm sad to say that I acted like an idiot blinded by all the easy money I was going to make. I possessed no understanding of the meaning of the term 'long run', all I could see was short term gains.

Learning to Count Cards

So Step 1 was over. I know my basic strategy. It was time for Step 2 - learning how to count cards. I have briefly explained the counting system I first learnt in the previous post.

Now, it had only taken me a couple of hours to learn Basic Strategy. Memorising the chart was pretty simple and playing a few dummy hands to test my knowledege was pretty easy too. But counting cards looked a bit more difficult. I got the old DVD out again (Beating BlackJack with Andy Bloch), and ran through the section on how to count cards.

This part of the DVD is great. The instructional bit on how to count cards is priceless. You watch, follow along, and learn how to count cards. +1, -1, +1. +1, +1, -1. The count is 2! Wow, this is easier than I thought (funny how the count on the instructional DVD is always positive). The first couple of times I ran through the DVD, I found it hard to keep up with him. Assigning numbers to other numbers and counting them is a tricky skill to learn, but after a little practice you do start to get the hang of it.

Of course as any counter knows, being able to add and subtract is not enough. You need to be able to do it in pairs, do it at speed and do it accurately! Being off by 1 is not going to hurt you overall, but if you're off the count by anymore than that - you're in trouble!

It was at this point I realised that I didn't have any playing cards to practice with. Doh! So I went out and got some at $3 a pack and started on some easy drills.

Drill 1 - Counting down a deck.
In the movie 21, there's a scene where he counts down a deck on a plane. I finally know what he's doing now!
The Hi-Lo system is a balanced system. This means that there is an even number of positive and negative cards in the deck, so that by the end of the deck you should always end up with zero. And that's what I did. I counted the deck down a few times until I confidently hit zero three times in a row. Man, I'm ready to go play now - I can count, I know basic strategy - I'm ready to win some money!

Drill 2 - Counting in pairs
On the Andy Bloch DVD - he points out that in casinos you get dealt cards in twos, so you should be counting in twos. It makes it less obvious that you're counting and you should be more efficient too.
So I sat there for an hour dealing myself three hands at a time and counting down 4 decks. I always came out at 0, or if I was off, I was only off by 1.

I'm pretty good at this counting stuff, eh? At least I thought I was.
As I was soon to find out, counting in the comfort and privacy of your home at a nice slow speed is not the same as doing it in a noisy, public environment.

Next post, I test to check if counting cards works
http://confessionsofacardcounter.blogspot.com/2008/12/testing-system.html