So there were recently a couple of post over at BlackJack Info on what happened to the blog. A bit of speculation that I in fact couldn't count cards at all and lost my bankroll. Well, just in case anyone is wondering what happened, here is what happened:

It was fun ... for a while

It's been a long week, it's late, I'm tired and it's All Hallow's Eve! (Halloween). So here's a quick story for y'all (sorry, but it's not scary).

In the very early days of my card counting career, I was part of a duo ( well trying to be anyway). We were a little naive and over optimistic at the time on all the fortunes that card-counting was going to bring us, but we weren't stupid. We did our research, studied the art of counting cards and practised.

One of the first things you learn about card counting is that it is based on the fact that the player has an advantage when the deck is heavy in 10's and A's. One of the reasons for this is that it increases the chances of the player getting a blackjack.

When we first hit the tables, we started to notice that there were times when a certain number would clump together. More often than not, it was the tens (makes sense since there are 4x the number of tens than any other card). We weren't the only ones. Other players at the table noticed it too.

"Man, look at all those 10's!" was uttered more than once by ploppies sitting next to me. Even the ploppies know the tens are good.

However, what interested me and my partner was when all the A's came together. We realised that if we could track those A's during the shuffle, then we were going to significantly increase the odds of predicting a blackjack. (I later learned that this is called shuffle tracking).

One time, I was playing alone with my partner watching and counting along for practice (I know - great cover eh? We were young and stupid). I noticed that there was a clump of 5 aces with some 10's as well. They came near the end of the shoe, so I knew where they were pre-shuffle.

Now, the dealers shuffle was weak. He shuffled once through and presented me the deck for cutting. I knew roughly where those aces were, but added a few cards buffer. I winked to my partner and said brashly: "Watch this.".

The first hand I played a normal bet (single unit). A bunch of 10's dropped, but no aces. The next hand I bumped my bet up to 10 units. I could feel the glare of my partner as he was in shock at what I was doing. There was no way that I was supposed to be ramping bets after the first hand. With mostly 10's, the shoe was already going against me. But I could smell thoses Aces. I was confident of my cut, and I knew they were on the way.

Lo and behold, the dealer dealt me 2 blackjacks, and a A7 for himself!

I turned to my partner with a smug smile. He couldn't believe what I had done, and honestly neither could I. It was luck - but I pulled it off!

Yes, it was stupid shuffle tracking without actually practising it first and I got lucky to get 2 blackjacks, but if I make that same play enough to get into the long run, it's a winning play, and that is what card counting is all about.

Have a good Halloween all!

DUDE! Where'd you go!
I must apologise to my few followers who are reading and enjoying my blog. As you might have gathered from my last post, I was getting worried about only making small returns and the risk of getting booted from my favourite joints before I get the chance to play big. However, this was not the reason for my short disappearance from the card counting world.

Recently, I've been getting a lot more responsibility at the day job and so the hours have increased (sadly the pay only went up a little). However, there are many new doors opening for me in the business world. I have the opportunity to set-up a couple of small businesses, with good long term potential and also the hourly returns are better than what I'm making from the card-counting. Opportunities like this don't come round every day - so my priorities are with my new ventures.

If you spend much time at card-counting forums like I do, then you will know that having a solid financial base is a great platform for a card counter. You will nearly always make more money from day jobs than you would at counting cards. Card-counting is more of a hobby and a way to earn some extra income from your spare time. Old-timers are always advising new comers to sort their careers first before becoming card-counters (advice that sadly falls on deaf ears).

I've decided to follow that route for now and put my card-counting on hold. I will still be sneaking off every once in a while to keep my skill fresh, but at very low limits and for short periods. Card-counting has become like a hobby. A nice way to unwind and spend an evening out. So the making money bit is not the priority.

If all goes well with my business venture and I can build a nice bankroll - expect me to make a big comeback in a few years.

What does this mean for the blog?
I will still be scouring the forums and making some posts here to keep you all entertained. I still have a bunch of stories to tell from my past experiences (I post out of time sequence with live events to prevent casinos getting a clue on my identity). There is also plenty of advice still to be dished out - so keep tuning in and thanks for following the blog!

Want to PM me? Find my profile here:
BJInfo Forum Profile

I always welcome questions from newbies and stories from the rest of ya!

Over the past couple of months I've been pondering my future in card counting. I think it is mainly due to a series of losing streaks counteracting my initial winning streak taking me slightly below (but still close to) EV.

When I first starting counting I had some phenomenal success due to some nice winning streaks. I was way above EV. A lot of this was due to multi-hand play at high counts and some slight over-betting. (I was using a renewable bankroll - so it's not technically over betting). This was all near the end of 2008.

Since then, there have been some major corrections and I hit some pretty hard losing streaks, which unfortunately coincided with the point when I decided to increase my bet levels. This was especially painful and it hit my bankroll pretty hard, forcing me to drop my betting unit back to its original level. So whilst my EV in terms of units is still on track, my bankroll is a little worse for wear.

Since then, my bankroll has only gone up a little. At a much slower rate than when I started, but not too far off EV. So I'm still making money - but is it worth the time I'm spending?

June was actually a decent month for me, and I increased my bankroll by about $1,500. But looking at my overall bankroll per hour again, I'm making just under $5 per hour (since I started) after all expenses. My bankroll is still way too small to make serious cash from counting cards. My worry is that I'll be caught and banned from all my local joints before I have enough cash to do some serious damage.

This has all lead me to question what I'm doing when it comes to counting cards. I know I am capable of counting cards and I have seen the positive results. But for $5 an hour - is it worth it? For $10 an hour, its a definite yes for me, but $20 would be even better. In other words, I need to double my betting unit, then double it again. At my current rate of play, this will take approximately 18 months. By that time, it is very likely I will have been banned from some if not all my local joints.

So, why not find an alternate source of income to make $10 an hour and build my bankroll that way. Then, when my bankroll is big enough to comfortably support and EV of $20 an hour, I can return to counting cards then. That's my current feeling anyway. Still not decided which way I'm going to go.

Card counting is only a part-time activity for me.

Casinos don't like it when you win. Sure they pretend they do, it's part of the act of creating an enjoyable, amiable atmosphere whilst emptying your pockets at the same time. Running a casino is a business, and they expect you, the punter, to pay.

Most of the location I play at I'm up overall. Glad to say I've attracted no heat from pit bosses as yet. However, I have been asked more than once by the dealers if I was a card counter. A card counters biggest fear is being caught and barred. In some places you will get barred from a whole chain of casinos or worse, be put on a counter list that is distributed to casinos. For me though, since I play at a series of independent casinos - this is not so much a worry.

So here I am again, hitting a small winning streak, and the amazed dealer can only think of one thing - he must be card counter. Yet the pit boss is no where around to be seen. So there is no actual heat. It's just the dealer trying to figure out how I'm winning.

Let's put it in context. Dealers are only at the tables for short stints at a time. They are not allowed to see my whole game. So it often happens that you hit a number of winning streaks with one particular dealer, whilst your losing streaks are spread amongst the other dealers. So the dealer is only seeing you win.

Another factor is that most blackjack players don't even know basic strategy. They are pure gamblers who make stupid, instinct plays not backed up by statistics. These players always lose, and they lose quickly (much more than the expected 0.5-1%). So dealers here have little experience with players who follow basic strategy, and thus last longer on the tables. If more players followed basic strategy, counters would stick out a lot less.

So when a dealer asks me if I count cards - it's not cause I'm getting heat, it's just a perplexed dealer who isn't used to seeing players win. Even if I wasn't counting, but just following basic strategy and hitting some winning streaks, they'd still think I was counting cards.

So I just lean back and deliver off one of my pre-formulated answers "Sure I'm counting. 1, 2, 3 upto 21. Anything over and I bust right?". This shuts them up pretty quickly.

Now, if a pit boss asks me if I'm counting - that's a different scenario.

So today was yet another day of counting cards where I got to play with some idiot ploppies. I feel the need to rant about it, so bear with me!

A ploppy is an everyday blackjack gambler who 'plops' themselves on a stool around the table in the 'hope' of winning. They do not count cards and normally have no idea about basic strategy.

Now don't get me wrong when you read this. I don't hate ploppies, after all they keep casinos in business. It's just painful to watch them make not only incorrect, but plainly stupid plays and it's more than annoying when their bad play ruins my hands (even though I know that in the end it will average out and should ignore it). I'm so used to having the tables all to myself most of the time (no I don't get heat), that I've gotten used to playing really fast. The more hands I can fit in, the more my average hourly earnings. This is one of my secrets to growing my bankroll faster than is expected.

So here I was, just starting a third shoe. Finally the true count goes high enough for me to start ramping the bets and it's still early in the shoe. All of a sudden, a ploppy arrives at the table (no, he wasn't back counting), slightly drunk and fumbles for some cash. Last thing I want to do is share my high count with some know nothing ploppy.

He takes first base and the dealer deals him in. He gets an A, I get a 6, and the dealer a 10! I can't help but feel gutted that this ploppy stole my blackjack just when I ramped my bet. I also ended up losing the hand. The arrival of the ploppy, funnily enough, leads to a winning streak for him, and a losing streak for me with a nice high true count, so my bankroll was diminishing quickly.

Now, as a card counter, I know that I should ignore ALL ploppy plays. In the long run, it is going to have no effect on my earnings. Just chalk it up to variance and forget about it. But in the here and now, it's hard to ignore.

The ploppy started to build a nice stack of $5 chips and increased his bets, thinking his luck was in. A small 5 hand losing streak wiped him out, and he was gone! Thank god. Bye Bye ploppy.

But the night wasn't over yet. I was quickly joined by 4 young gents on a night on the town. I had sat myself in third base by this time, so was last in the action. The last of the young gents fancied himself a bit of a know it all. He would hit a 14 against a 4, stick on 15 against a 9, etc etc. All wrong plays according to Basic Strategy dummy! But what really made me laugh is when he turned to his friend and said "See all those 10's? That means we won't win the next hand". Little did he realise the true count was upto +3 by this stage.

The arrival of the new ploppies started another losing streak as their bad plays turned winning hands into losing ones for me. (Yes, yes! I know, ignore it - it's part of variance - it will all be good in the end).

But wait there's more! Next came the drunk player. You know what I'm talking about. So inebriated, he barely knows what he's doing. This was the last straw, after playing 2 hands where I had to wait 5 mins each time for him to make a decision, I just had to get up and leave. After all, time is money.

I ended the night up 2.5 units. So at least something came out of it.